SPACE BATTLE :
Billionaire vs Billionaire
BY RHEA LOUIS / JUNE 26, 2021
The private sector revolution in the space industry initiated by billionaires Bezos, Musk and Branson has fuelled deliberations regarding the varied impact of the move.
hroughout history, competition and contests have been a major driving force for exploration. In fact, it is something market economies allow and encourage to help consumers attain new and better products as well as promote economic growth. Interstellar travel has long since been an area of such competition, the beginning of which was marked by the growing rivalry and political hostility between the Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War which became the key force that encouraged human beings to first venture into space through the launch of ‘Sputnik’, the first artificial satellite to orbit Earth in 1957.
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Traditionally, governments and other public entities have played a pivotal role in space research and related services with a view to maintain national security and economic growth. However, recently, space technologies are increasingly being driven by commercial companies and private capital. With the hopes to push the frontiers of the society and commerce beyond planet Earth, three privately owned Aerospace companies led by billionaire CEOs, Virgin Galactic, SpaceX and Blue Origin, have started a private sector revolution in the space industry causing the space race between countries to shift to one between billionaires. Although creating a sustainable business model seems to be the goal for all three, the main driver is their aspirational goal to invest in space and make space travel accessible. Their individual objectives however, differ from each other.
Credits: "Space Race" by Trash Riot via Pinterest
Jeff Bezos, the CEO of Blue Origin, envisions building a space-based civilisation free from disasters and mining the moon for resources as his main objective. On the other hand, Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX, has set his sights on colonising Mars, making human-beings a multi-planetary species. In addition to this, he also envisions to construct ‘Starlink’, a high-speed internet connection of 12,000 satellites in the form of constellations. Meanwhile, space tourism and developing affordable commercial suborbital flights seems to be the main objective for Richard Branson, the CEO of Virgin Galactic. Today, the satellite industry is worth approximately 350 billion USD and has the potential to generate up to 1 trillion USD by 2040, causing billionaires to view space as the new global market. In recent years, India opened its space programs to private players through the formation of IN-SPACe (Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre) which aims to provide a level playing field for Indian private companies to contribute to the country’s space programs. Although there has been an increase in the involvement from research institutions of late, it is still comparatively very low. In fact, the Indian Space industry only accounts for 3% of the rising 360 billion USD global space industry.
Today, the satellite industry is worth approximately 350 billion USD and has the potential to generate up to 1 trillion USD by 2040.
The benefits of billionaires entering the Space race have been many. Not only have investments in the space economy grown significantly in the recent years, but it is estimated that commercial companies now account for about 80% of the global space industry. In addition to Information Technology (IT) and Telecom sector, which are crucial fields in the space industry, these billionaires also hope to explore various other fields. One such example is Space Resource Extraction, which includes mining the moon and extracting minerals from asteroids. It is anticipated that through this, revenue can be attained and redistributed to create global UBI (Universal Basic Income) which could help in elevating underdeveloped and developing countries, in reducing and demolishing crippling poverty and in fueling the advancement of the entire human species. Super abundance and extraction of resources like platinum, which are scarce on earth will help in the expansion of automation which in turn will increase output with the reduced need for human labor.
Flights to space are expensive since a rocket must burn a lot of costly fuel to travel high and fast enough to enter the earth’s orbit. A substitute to this is the discovery of suborbital flights, where the rockets go high enough to reach the edge of space and come right back down hence, consuming comparatively lesser fuel. This enables passengers to experience the incredible view as well as the weightlessness of space at a relatively affordable price. Today, a flight and a stay on International Space Station will cost about 55 million USD while the price of suborbital trips, being comparatively far more reasonable, ranges between 200,000 USD and 250,000 USD.
Credits: Tess Smith-Roberts via Pinterest
This reflects that, through these ventures, not only did the price to launch into space start dropping steadily, but it also became transparent since privatization induces the private players to be held accountable and answerable to their investors and to governments.
As technological improvements combine with capital formation, space tourism and in-space manufacturing becomes viable. The popular YouTube channel ‘Second Thoughts’ debates how the windfall from the space industry can help invest in clean energy, education, public work programs and expansion of private space programs therefore, reducing the burden on the existing programs.
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However, these projects have a significant number of teething troubles.
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Even if the issue of high capital costs is resolved through reusable and suborbital flights, the problem of consistency and safety still persists and accidents among SpaceX and other commercial players reflect the fact that space-faring is unpredictable and dangerous. Moreover, environmentalists also bring up concerns regarding how projects such as the Starlink will not only lead to the destruction of the natural view of constellations and contribute to the creation of ‘space junk’ but the burning of solid rocket fuels also creates hefty carbon footprints which in turn can lead to ozone depletion.
The key concern however, is who would control these colonies and resources: the private actors or the formation of governments similar to those found on earth. Thus, reflecting the two extreme outcomes of privatisation to be either massive inequality and dystopia, or equitable growth for all and the existence of an egalitarian society. This highlights the importance of equitable distribution of the resources from these ventures, failure of which will result in the ‘Elysium Effect’. The ‘Elysium Effect’ is a term that is derived from the 2013 science-fiction film Elysium, which displays that in the year 2145, the Earth’s wealthiest 0.01% population have been moved into a luxurious gated orbiting space colony whereas the rest of the poverty-stricken population are left to fend for themselves on a devastated planet Earth.
If the existence of an
egalitarian society is to be a
possibility in the future,
now will be the time to start
talking about democratisation
of the space industry.
Although, the billionaires in the space field have an objective to open space to everyone by lowering costs over time, the current scenario of initial spaceflight customers being billionaires instils concerns of marginalisation among the common man. Over the last few decades, particularly in terms of technology, we have entrusted so much of our fate and confidence to a limited number of tech titans. If the existence of an egalitarian society is to be a possibility in the future, now will be the time to start talking about democratisation of the space industry.
Human advancement is inevitable and the commercial expansion of the space industry can have many benefits to global development, international relations and technological innovation. However, past data proves to be a cautionary tale against investing in the space industry, noting that stocks have been volatile and several companies failed in this endeavour during the ‘90s. Moreover, this battle may also accentuate the existing global wealth disparity and lead to a post-apocalyptic possibility of an Elysium-esque world which makes discussions about democratisation of the industry to be a pressing priority.
Keywords
Suborbital flights, space race, Elysium Effect, ISS, space-faring, UBI, egalitarian society, existential catastrophe, IN-SPACe
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References
Jolly, J. (2021, February 6). US billionaires vie to make space the next business frontier. The Guardian.
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Tumlinson, R. (2020, October 24). The Elysium effect: The coming backlash to the billionaire “NewSpace” revolution. Space.Com.
https://www.space.com/elysium-effect-billionaire-space-revolution
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Research, Focus, G., & America, N. (2019, June 4). The Commercial Space Economy: Business Is Making a “Giant Leap.” Knowledge@Wharton. https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/commercial-space-economy/
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Backe, E. L. (2018, July 10). The Elysium Effect: Space Law and Commercial Space Disparities. The Geek Anthropologist.
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Space: Investing in the Final Frontier. Morgan Stanley. (2020, July 24). https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/investing-in-space
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Ward, P. (2019, November 6). The unintended consequences of privatising space. BBC Science Focus Magazine.
https://www.sciencefocus.com/space/the-unintended-consequences-of-privatising-space/
Credits: Maritza Piña via Pinterest
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